Overwhelming evidence for the global climate & oceans disruption
dire Earth emergency
Many reasons for planetary emergency
Too late to avoid going far above 2°C. Leading world climate change science advisor warns climate target 'out the window 'BBC News 23 Aug 2012.
Professor Sir Robert Watson said that the hope of restricting the average temperature rise to 2C was "out the window".
He said that the likely rise is 3 to 4C and may be as high as 5C - with dire consequences.
He presented the situation to the 2012 American Geophysical Union conference. With an radical drastic emergency response it is theoretically possible to keep under 2C but Robert Watson's prediction was based on the reality there will be no such response because the national pledges made are so paltry.
By definition any risk of not stabilizing below 2C is a climate planetary emergency.
Increasing risk of crop losses
all best agricultural regions from heat,
drought & floods
Worst climate catastrophes in the making
o Increasing extreme weather
o Arctic multiple amplifying feedbacks
o Arctic switched from carbon sink to source
o Oceans- warming +deoxygenation +acidification
o Amazon & tropical rain forests switched from carbon sink to source
o 6th Mass extinction of life, to be boosted by global climate change
CLIMATE EMERGENCY INSTITUTE
Atmospheric CO2 highest in 4 million years (NOAA)
1 June 2020 Atmospheric CO2 possibly 23 million-year high
Increasing worldwide disastrous climate change impacts already, and far greater committed (locked in) climate change should make the emergency obvious.
The emergency is now recognized in the UN Paris Agreement . ' Recognizing that climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet
Also recognizing that deep reductions in global emissions will be required in order to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention and emphasizing the need for urgency in addressing climate change' Paris Agreement Dec 2015
However the 'Intended' national emissions targets puts the world on track for 3.5C up to 4.6C by 2100, which is 8C after 2100 (full equilibrium warming) from Climate Interactive. This is certain catastrophe to the entire human population and almost all life (judging by past mass extinction events). World food production would collapse by 2050.
SURVIVAL For the first time a July 2015 paper finds that our mismanagement of Nature puts our
survival in jeopardy
A NASA based 2014 computer model report warns of collapse of civilization
industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?
A 2015 climate food production projection finds that 'climate change
‘set to fuel global food crisis, (and this report also includes
bee pollinator colony death crisis due to pesticide use and climate change).
The definite global emergency today is because of today's committed global
climate change, with all climate change indicators accelerating (StateofOurClimate.com),and no agreement to reverse global emissions
(into decline)
Who does the emergency apply to?
As shown (click above link) the list has grown fast over the past decade.
Now it is almost all of us alive today, and certainly applies to all today's children everywhere and certainly
to all future generations
The fast changing Arctic is an emergency for the future of the life sustaining biospshere and life.
Already committed (locked in) global climate change.
1.5C by 2030-2040 and 2°C by today's atmospheric GHGs. (IPCC AR5 WG1).
As reported in IPCC AR5 WG2 Food by a 2C warming all crop yields in all food producing regions will be in decline, except only for temperate rice.Summer high temperatures will become too high for NH as well as tropical crops.
OCEANS Atmospheric CO2 & GHG pollution are causing rapid ocean warming (now going deep) acidification and deoxygenation- a catastrophic triple assault. Warming + acidification is projected to lead to irreversible collapse, which would be disastrous for live on land.
The most important IPCC finding ‘Projected future climate change and other human-induced pressures are virtually certain to be unprecedented compared with the past several hundred millennia’. (AR4 WG2 Impacts 4.1 Key issues)
o Atmospheric CO2 is at a 3-5 million year high (possibly 15 million year high) and the CO2 rate of increase is unprecedented (WMO Oct 2017)
o Rate of industrial CO2 emissions is unprecedented in the past 65 million years , which 14,000 X faster than CO2 can be removed.
o The terrestrial biosphere is now a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere
o Tropical rainforests have switched from carbon sink to source
o The Arctic has switched from carbon sink to source
o Ocean acidification is at a 20 million year and 300 million increase rate high, and accelerating.
"It (record of 2015 -16) emphasises that we have no carbon budget left for the 1.5°C target and the opportunity for holding to 2°C is rapidly fading unless the world starts cutting emissions hard right now". Prof M. Mann Mar 2016
Sept 2017 Amazon switch carbon sink to source
27 Nov 2019 Climate tipping points — too risky
MUST ACT NOW
2022 all climate change indicators are increasing as fast as ever, atmospheric GHGs faster than ever. Atmospheric methane is soaring at an explosive rate from warmed wetland methane feedback
5 Nov 2019 World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency William J Ripple et al
28 July 2021 World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021 (update)
W. Ripple et al
IPCC AR6 Multiple lines of evidence show that the rate at which CO2 has increased in the atmosphere during 1900–2019 is at least 10 times faster than at any other time during the last 800,000 years (high confidence), and 4–5 times faster than during the last 56 million years. IPCC AR6 WG1 {5.1.1, 2.2.3; Figures 5.3, 5.4; Cross-Chapter Box 2.1}
2023 Business as usual
Big economy governments, big banks and fossil fuel corporations are still keeping the world on business as usual fossil fuelled expanding world economy, governments subsidizing the fossil fuel industry heavily.
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